31
Aug/10

Pakistani Taliban Threatens Flood Relief Workers

by holden under Geopolitics, Intelligence Analysis, Open Source Intelligence, Terrorism, Uncategorized

The AP and international media channels last week reported statements from Pakistani Taliban spokesman Azam Tariq that barely veiled threats of violence against foreign aid workers responding to catastrophic flooding.

In coverage of Tariq’s statement below, you can see that rationale is claimed as international relief efforts are suspected to have “other unspecified ‘intentions’” beyond aid to flood victims (click the image for an expanded view).

Azam Tariq Threatens Relief Workers

Pakistani Taliban Spokesman Azam Tariq Threatens Relief Workers

This warning came several weeks after the group publicly called for the Pakistani government to reject American aid (two such events can be seen below in Recorded Future query for “Pakistani Taliban Movement” over the past month), claiming it could provide $20 million dollars of support funding itself.

Pakistani Taliban Calls for Denial of International Funding

Pakistani Taliban Calls for Denial of International Support

The scenario can be put into context looking back at how public opinion of the United States changed in Pakistan following the US-led humanitarian assistance efforts for Pakistan after the 2005 earthquake. Polls at the time from Terror Free Tomorrow: The Center for Public Opinion showed “78% of Pakistanis have a more favorable opinion of the United States because of the American response to the earthquake, with the strongest support among those under 35.”

One can see how the decidedly anti-American Tehrik-i-Taliban might not want a repeat of history. To that point, we see the public opinion effects already spotlighted when looking at the network for Azam Tariq from August 10, just before the organization’s first statements, through August 30.

Network for Azam Tariq

Recent Relationship Network for Azam Tariq

Reactionary, public signals from the Tehrik-i-Taliban emerged several weeks after momentum for “Natural Disaster” discussion around flooding in the country peaked. Below you can see the momentum and timeline for a search using the “Natural Disaster” event designation over the “Last 60 days” for Pakistan.

Natural Disaster Timeline in Pakistan

Recent Timeline for "Natural Disaster" in Pakistan

Despite its best efforts, the group has failed to stop the UN from claiming it has reached roughly 70 percent of its target for aid contributions. Searching for the Pakistani city “Sukkur” over the last seven days in Recorded Future we see:

Knowing that the Pakistani Taliban activity is likely to generate further commentary and media speculation throughout the flood relief period, you might want to seek out statements (using the Quotation event in the “What” field) including “taliban” over the period from the group’s initial public position on aid and prior to threats of violence.

Below we see acknowledgement of the brewing situation back in mid-August from Pakistan’s Interior Minister Rehman Malik, saying, “the Taliban would not be allowed to take advantage of the crisis to increase its support.”

Clearly, the issue will continue to be a contentious and precarious one as UN and other aid organizations are refusing to curtail their support efforts despite the threats.

Using Recorded Future, one could start to determine patterns and make predictions around any number of the themes discussed above. After a natural disaster brings humanitarian aid, it seems that the Taliban (or at least its local arm) can be expected to puff out its chest in opposition to outside support.

Even more critical, and hopefully not tragic, will be to track and analyze how the statements surrounding humanitarian workers play out. One can only hope that they remain safe and the threats are nothing more than words.

You can keep tabs on statements from Azam Tariq (and many other public figures) by subscribing to a Future alert:

As always, feel free to share your thoughts below. What other spaces would be valuable to watch on this issue? Are there particular individuals and groups or perhaps a regional focus on how recovery is going in particular cities or regions that you think might provide valuable indicators?

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25
Aug/10

Sheik Ali Mohamud Rage: Terror Prognosticator in Somalia?

by Ninja Shoes under Intelligence Analysis, Open Source Intelligence, Predictive Analytics, Terrorism, Uncategorized

Sheik Ali Mohamud Rage (aka: Sheikh Ali Dhere) is a media spokesperson for the al Qaeda-aligned Somali terror group al-Shabaab. Based on two recent incidents captured by Recorded Future, Sheikh Ali Dhere may be (intentionally or unintentionally) telegraphing the group’s terror plans through his media campaign.

Beginning with the July 12 attack on soccer fans in Uganda during the World Cup, Sheikh Ali Dhere was quoted prior to the attacks openly stating the group’s intention to “carry out attacks against our enemies wherever they are.”  Below is a visual representation of  Sheikh Ali Dhere’s statement to the Associated Press as captured by Recorded Future prior to the attacks:

Sheik Ali Mahmoud Rage

On the same day as his declaration, two attackers carried out near-simultaneous suicide bombings in Uganda, which is a main supplier of AMISOM forces (a main target for al Shabaab attacks) currently in Somalia. This is the first indication that Sheikh Ali Dhere may have inside access to operational planning and is not simply a media figurehead.

Following the attack, Uganda pledged to increase its troop commitments, further incensing al Shabaab militants.  Within hours of the attack,  Recorded Future captured Sheikh Ali Dhere claiming credit for al Shabaab:

Ali Mohamud Rage Statements

While this incident hints at Sheikh Ali Dhere’s intimate knowledge of al Shabaab’s operational planning, his inside knowledge of the groups terror intentions becomes even more evident following his most recent media statements and subsequent attacks.

On Monday, August 23, 2010, Sheikh Ali Dhere declared al Shabaab militants were starting a new war against invaders (by which he meant the over 6,000 African Union Soldiers stationed in Somalia). Later in the day, al Shabaab engaged African Union troops, killing 40 civilians.  Recorded Future, in near real time,  captured a news article that quotes Sheikh Ali Dhere prior to the attack stating the group’s intentions for increased violence:

Ali Mohamud Rage - August Warning Statements

Yesterday (August 24, 2010),  Sheikh Ali Dhere claimed al Shabaab was responsible for an attack on a hotel housing Somali lawmakers and claimed the attack was carried out by the group’s “special forces. ”

This attack fits the profile of attack plans Sheikh Ali Dhere laid out on Monday, August 23,  2010.

Ali Mohamud Rage Claims Shabaab Responsibility for Attacks

Through Recorded Future, we are able to see that Sheikh Ali Dhere is a key figure in al Shabaab’s media campaign and, perhaps more importantly, is someone with intimate knowledge and access to both al Shabaab’s internal and external terror planning cycle.

This raises his profile from mere media spokesperson to more important member of al Shabaab’s inner circle, thus making him someone that both the media and the intelligence community will want to keep a close eye on.

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17
Aug/10

The 2010 Midterm Elections: Anti-incumbency and the Tea Party Movement

by holden under Geopolitics, Government Analysis, Media Analytics, News Analytics, Politics and Elections

The 2010 United States midterm elections will take place November 2, 2010.  On that day, voters will seat 37 of the 50 state governors, 36 of the 100 US Senators, and all 435 House Representatives.  Currently, 59 Senators caucus with the Democrats in the Senate and 253 representatives in the House, but all evidence indicates that these relatively large majorities will lessen, if not disappear, come November.  This is because the off-year election traditionally favors the party not holding the White House.

In addition to the historic trends, two factors unique to this year threaten to further hurt the Democrats.  First, the unemployment rate currently hovers just below 10%, a discouraging sign for the party in power, as voters often use basic economic “vote your pocketbook” factors to reward or punish those currently in charge.  Second, the rise of the conservative populist Tea Party Movement has given extra energy to the GOP this cycle resulting in an enthusiasm gap between the left and right and portending a turnout favoring the Republicans.

While national indicators can paint a big picture, counter-trend anomalies can happen in individual races.  For example, this year, the Tea Party movement’s enthusiasm might harm the Republicans as much as help. The conventional wisdom in national politics is that when the other side is down, parties should nominate popular electable candidates who may not always support every party position.  A common mistake, however, is to overreach: to nominate someone very loyal to the cause in the belief that the incumbent will lose no matter what. In 2006, when the tide was bleak for the Republicans, the Democrats picked up Senate seats in Montana, Missouri, Pennsylvania, and Virginia with established candidates popular within the state but moderate to conservative on many issues.  Conversely, in Connecticut that year, the liberal Ned Lamont lost in the general election to the more moderate Democrat-turned-Independent Joe Lieberman after previously beating him in the party primary. In this case, the strong reaction to the status quo pushed opposition activists to nominate a firebrand in the primary, only to see that candidate get labeled an extremist in the general.  In that race, the individual candidates transcended the national narrative. To get a sense of whether that will occur in any particular race this year, we can use Recorded Future’s news analytics features to focus on a single race to understand the its candidates, their positions, and the race’s outlook. Harry Reid is the senior Senator from Nevada and the Majority Leader of the Senate, a position of significant influence and visibility.  Because of this, he is closely tied to President Obama’s agenda, and President Obama’s favorable rating in Nevada has fallen from nearly 55% last May to 37.2% today.  Senator Reid’s own favorable rating has been poor over the past year, and coupled with Nevada’s 14% unemployment rate, the Republicans have sensed vulnerability and are targeting him for defeat. Using Recorded Future, we can create a timeline view for Harry Reid in Government and Politics during 2010.  In it, we see a number of negative events in the early part of this year, as indicated by the red circles.

Harry Reid - Timeline 2010

Harry Reid - 2010

The January event involves the loss of Ted Kennedy’s former Senate seat and the 60-vote filibuster-proof super-majority to Scott Brown (a popular electable moderate himself) and the Republicans.  Following that comes, in order, the retirement of Evan Bayh, a Democratic challenge to him in his own primary, and his decision to weaken the Financial Reform bill.

However, in early June, we see a huge spike in momentum, as well as a number of positive events.  This is because on June 8, in the Republican primary, Sharron Angle defeated Sue Lowden.

Sharron Angle 2010

Sharron Angle came out of nowhere to defeat the established Sue Lowden.  The timeline above shows the story: up until shortly before the June election, there was almost no news on Angle.  At the start of June, though, the mentions skyrocketed.
Lowden was a former State Senator who had been endorsed by Senator Jon Kyl, former Senator Fred Thompson, and the NRA.   Angle, meanwhile, was endorsed by the Tea Party Express and the Club for Growth.  This dichotomy can be best seen in the Recorded Future Network view of the two women for 2010.

Sue Lowden Political Network

Sharron Angle - 2010 Political Network
Notice the connections for Lowden above: many with the Republican Party, the Honda Motor Corporation, and “fairly prominent businesswoman”.  Now look at Angle: connections with “Conservatives” (and, significantly, not the Republican Party) and with the Tea Party movement.

Sharron Win a Positive for Reid

Zooming in and mousing over Harry Reid’s timeline, we see that the media sources collectively agree that Angle’s win was a positive for Senator Reid.  In a general election, the two sides will try to appeal to the voters in the middle of the political spectrum, and Reid will now make an appeal that the more conservative Angle is too extreme for the state.  Among her positions, Angle believes that the Department of Education should be eliminated, that the US should pull out of the UN, that abortion should be illegal including in cases of rape and incest, and that humans have no effect on global climate change.
These stances place her at the far right of her own party.  Reid, meanwhile, despite the liberal label applied by his critics, votes as a relative moderate: his DW-Nominate score, created by a non-partisan outfit which ranks the Senate from most liberal (#1) to most conservative (#102), has him tied for 37th.  As such, he can paint himself as the sensible moderate to Angle’s out-of-touch extremist .
The Nevada Senate seat is currently a toss-up.  The outcome will likely be decided by the extent that the Nevada electorate reacts to the national atmosphere versus the individual candidates.  Senators with high unfavorables in states undergoing economic collapse are rarely reelected.  However, if Sharron Angle were to win, she would become one of the most conservative members of the Senate. In a state that voted for Barack Obama in 2008 by a 55%-43% margin, the electorate might find that too extreme a counter-reaction.  A win would show the Tea Party taking full advantage of the political situation, electing into office those who most agree with them and avoiding later internecine battles (battles which, incidentally, have plagued the Democratic Party over the past two years as they attempt to legislate with a caucus filled with both steadfast liberals and electable moderates).  A loss would be a significant missed opportunity, as the chance to unseat an opposition Leader rarely happens. Get updates as the future unfolds:

Let us know if you’d like learn more about how Recorded Future’s media analytics can support political election research or request a live demo and we’ll show you how it works.
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26
Jul/10

OSINT Analysis: Long Range Missiles and Hezbollah

by Ninja Shoes under Geopolitics, Intelligence Analysis, Open Source Intelligence, Terrorism, Terrorism Analysis

Hezbollah Open Source Intelligence

With an estimated 90% of required intelligence available open source, it is imperative that intelligence analysts become
adept at mining open sources–and Recorded Future can help! Today, we take a look at the reported transfer of Scud missiles from Syria to Hezbollah and what open source intelligence is/was available to verify or at least could have helped predict the event took place.

First we’ll look at Recorded Future Capturing Disclosure of Hezbollah possession of Long Range Missiles:

On 21 MAR 2010 Israeli President Shimon Peres — who claims second hand access — reports the transport of Scud missiles from Syria to Hezbollah. This represents a marked escalation of tensions as Scuds have the ability to strike deep in Israeli territory. Here we’ve searched for Hezbollah, all events occurring in last 12 months

Open Source Analysis

Click to enlarge

Looking back on the disclosure by Peres of the transfer,  a Recorded Future analysis of open statements by Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah may have offered verification.

Quotes by Hezbollah leadership captured by Recorded Future showing possible possession of long range missiles:

  • Hezbollah Leader Hassan Nasrallah’s rhetoric begins to include references for striking targets deep in Israel ( most notable: Tel Aviv Airport and Israeli warships at sea).
Nasrallah Analysis

Nasrallah Targets Israel

This is very important if true. Historically, Hezbollah has only been able to target towns in northern Israel from the Bakaa Valley or warships close to the coast/in port.  Given that Tel Aviv is almost 300 km away, this would represent a major upgrade in long range missiles. This rhetoric, though unconfirmed may be the first indicator that talks of a SCUD transfer were accurate…

In the last 60 days, Nasrallah’s rhetoric has become even more pointed — overtly suggesting that it does indeed possess longer range missiles. He even went as far as to suggest that Hezbollah now has the capability to inflict damage on a similar scale as the most powerful military in the Middle East (Israel). This appears to be a clear indication of the acquisition of more advanced weapons.

OSINT Hezbollah

Hezbollah Targeting Israel

Nasrallah also talks of direct targeting (hitting what you aim for) which is outside the capability of a SCUD and could lend credibility to the reports that Hezbollah has recieved the more advanced Iranian made Fateh-110 surface-to-surface missile–which have much better targeting capabilities. Below is a quote from Nasrallah regarding direct targeted as captured by RF:

Nasrallah Targeting

Open Source Intelligence Analysis

Here we quickly analyze Nasrallah person network over the last 30 days. Notice the spike in online momentum (curve at the top).

Open Source Link Analysis

As you can see, a little open source research can go a long way! Not only did Recorded Future accurately record the disclosure by the Israeli government of Hezbollah’s acquisition of long range missiles, it also recorded the official Hezbollah response– which may showed strong evidence the transfer claim was accurate. Open source intelligence with Recorded Future can provide a low cost, high value tool that can supplement satellite imagery, covert sources and other traditional intelligence platforms!

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19
Jul/10

Introducing the Recorded Future Workbook – Analysis of the Kampala Bombings

by Ninja Shoes under Geopolitics, Media Analytics, Terrorism

On July 11 at the very end of the soccer World Cup, Al-Shabaab carried out multiple bombings in Kampala killing over 70 people. We’ve mentioned Al-Shabaab previously in the pattern of life analysis on Omar Hammami but now examine the organization more broadly as it takes violence outside of Somalia.

Kampala is usually a pretty quiet city on the “world scale,” but clearly online Momentum for the city rose sharply around the bombings.

Kampala 2010 Timeline

We might ask ourselves, who are these Al-Shabaab guys, and can we predict/monitor what they may be planning?

We conduct the query Person Career Al-Shabaab in Recorded Future to find titles/descriptions of people and display a network chart which allows exploration of the organization over time. For example, we could look back into their early history when Aden Hashi ran the organization.

Aden Hashi - Al-Shabaab Network

Organizing our analysis

We use the new Recorded Future Workbook functionality, which will soon be deployed to all Premium users, to structure our analysis.

The workbook allows users to organize and annotate queries into analytic products that easily can be shared with colleagues or turned into Futures (our alert system).

[We believe shared workbooks will become one of the most powerful aspects of Recorded Future.]

Recorded Future Workbook

Using this we may now take a look at the head of Al-Shabaab – Mukhtar Abdurahman Abu Zubeyr – and in particular look at whether he had indicated Uganda as a target.

In fact he did, and not only that, but he very explicitly threatened the country a week prior to the attack. Below, you can see the excerpt from AFP reporting on the statements one week (July 4/5) ahead of the bombings.

Warning of Attack on Uganda

Who should feel threatened? What’s in the Future?

In the wake of Al-Shabaab’s actions outside Somalia, the obvious question appears to who/where may be next.  Exploring in Recorded Future we find Mukhtar Abdurahman Abu Zubeyr as well as his spokesperson Ali Mohamud Rage speaking about:

  • July 4th – peace keepers in Somalia: “…released an audiotape that was broadcast on Somali radio stations in which he vowed to attack in Uganda and Burundi for sending troops…”. The peace keeping operation is organized by the AUO – and they have a key meeting in Uganda during late July.
  • June 24th – democracies: “…The reality is that democracy is something Allah made unlawful, and someone else cannot make it lawful…”. Next year’s election in Uganda is a danger zone.
  • June 26th – Somaliland voters: “…Days before Saturday’s presidential polls in the self-declared state, another key democratic test for Somaliland, the militant Islamist movement’s overall leader Ahmed Abdi Godane issued a chilling warning to voters…”
  • May 1st – Foreign security companies – “… blamed the attack on the work of ‘foreign security companies’ whose aim, he said, was to massacre Muslims…”
  • Jan 17th – American troops:  “…He also warned that if American troops are ever sent to Somalia they will end up dead…”

Al-Shabaab has proven that they can execute sophisticated and coordinated attacks beyond their borders, attract foreigners like Omar Hammimi, and are making threats (and executing upon them) against a broad set of targets.

Learn more about Recorded Future’s ground-breaking media analytics.

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1
Jun/10

Statistical Signals & Recorded Future

by Ninja Shoes under About Recorded Future, Statistics

If you’re interested in learning more about the statistics behind predictive analytics check out Bill Ladd’s blog Predictive Signals. In his most recent post Bill, a well seasoned stats PhD, uses Recorded Future to analyze and cluster news flow. For those looking for deeper mathematic examples demonstrating the power of Recorded Future keep an eye on Bill’s Predictive Signals blog.

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